China: The next superpower

[The Machine]

China is on the rise and year after year are growing in population, increasing in education, producing most of the world's goods, and rising in political power. I have many friends who have traveled on business trips to China and say that soon America will have to realize Chinese development surpassing their own. Who knows, will Mandarin being taught as a second language in high schools?

As China gets richer and stronger, the world is coming to share its belief that it merits recognition and respect as a great power.

Through a combination of economic dynamism, skilful diplomacy and understated threat, it is already regaining much of its old imperial supremacy across Asia.

Filling the void left by the former Soviet Union, it has also emerged as the likeliest challenger to the United States as a global superpower.

Scavengers wait for garbage next to new high-rising buildings, Shanghai
China may soon be a global power, but it still has far to go
But is it really willing or able to go that far? And if so, what sort of superpower might it be - benign or otherwise?

"There is no doubt in my mind that China is headed towards being a great power and as such will shatter the global status quo," said Jeffrey E Garten, Dean of the Yale School of Management in the US.

That is still a long way off, according to Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

For the foreseeable future China will be no match for the US, he said.

But that does not mean it is happy with the way things are. Every country has the wish to be world leader, he said.

"China doesn't want to accept US leadership. Confrontation is inevitable."

It is unusual for a country that achieves economic primacy not to have military ambitions, said Gary Milhollin of the Wisconsin Arms Project.

"At present China can't compete militarily with the US. But it's important to remember that American military might is built on the superiority of the US economy. The day when China has more money than anyone, it'll have a better defence than anyone".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3763370.stm

also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_as_an_emerging_superpower

This isn't anything particularly new, but it is a topic that is rarely seen on CE.

[Master. kirby]

no, because the vast majority of their citizens are poor as shit.

[TFS]

Even under Bush's leadership and the recovery from 9/11, between 2002 and 2006, our economy grew by the same dollar value that equals China's economy as a whole.

China's whole economy = how much our economy grows in 4 of the worst financial years in history.

[Mr. Heskey]

China's our bitch. A stockpile of what products they make go directly to us, so they are no more than a colony to the U.S. in everything but the name.

[Bullet]

China's our bitch. A stockpile of what products they make go directly to us, so they are no more than a colony to the U.S. in everything but the name.

Don't we owe China a lot of money?

My World History teacher was telling me. Great guy, by the way. He said one day China's going to ask for the money back. We're gonna be like... "What money?" :lol: Actually, that's what me and my friend joked about. Be funny to see it happen ---> Simpsons.

Is my teacher right?.


And question. How come we owe lots of countries... lots of $$$?

[Baji]

you really think those squinty eyed fuckers can beat america? Even if they can start growing as a nation we can slay them with our huge dicks. you know their puny meat noodles can't fuck with our USA sausage. We are going to take over the world soon and it's for the best. Once we control everything we can finally commit a mass genocide on all yellow skinned smart ass bitches. America! FUCK YEAH!

[weister42]

you really think those squinty eyed fuckers can beat america? Even if they can start growing as a nation we can slay them with our huge dicks. you know their puny meat noodles can't fuck with our USA sausage. We are going to take over the world soon and it's for the best. Once we control everything we can finally commit a mass genocide on all yellow skinned smart ass bitches. America! FUCK YEAH!

This guy is a winner



/not

[Karajan]

Yes we do owe China a shit-ton of money. The thing is is that they don't put their currency on the open-market, so it doesn't fluctuate like everyone else's does, so that keeps the costs down there. On the flip side, it also causes their citizens to make jack-shit money in comparison to the rest of the world, thus keeping them more isolated in a way.

I'm not really up on economics so I might be a little off, but that's pretty much the gist of what's going on in terms of our relation with them economically, including the whole outsourcing labor and all the cheap imports we get from them.

But like that article said, it'll be quite awhile if they surpass the US economically. There will have to be very large sweeping changes in the way they do things, which they don't like to do. Change in China happens very slowly and gradually, if at all.

I've been there, so I know first hand. The gap between rich and poor is ten-fold what it is here in the US. Mostly because there are more people that are dirt poor with no real opportunity to advance. Also, the competition for jobs there is much stiffer than here in the US. Just getting in to college is an ordeal in and of itself. Too many people, too little jobs.

I would actually like for someone who knows more about economics to expand upon and correct (if applicable) what I've said. Especially about the whole currency thing. I've been meaning to read up more on it but I just haven't had the chance.

[drexel]

no, because the vast majority of their citizens are poor as shit.

Even under Bush's leadership and the recovery from 9/11, between 2002 and 2006, our economy grew by the same dollar value that equals China's economy as a whole.

China's whole economy = how much our economy grows in 4 of the worst financial years in history.

are you guys blind?

do you honestly believe this shit?

[Papero]

Boy, I can't wait for the extremely illogical war to sure follow China's rise. It would be easier to just bow to China and allow them to prosper but I'm sure when it happens we will have some reason to nuke.

[Nocturnal]

Don't we owe China a lot of money?


And question. How come we owe lots of countries... lots of $$$?

Yes, we owe China trillions of dollars.

Why? Defecit spending (the federal government spends more than it takes in), trade imbalance (as a nation we buy more than we sell), and a negative personal savings rate (as people we spend more than we make). This is all financed by foreign nations, mainly through various government bonds (treasury bills etc. )

The details of this are exceedingly complicated. It is good to have other nations invest in yours, you get to have a higher standard of living and it keeps your currency strong. This only lasts to a point though, as money borrowed is payed back eventually, with interest. There is normally a balancing act in this, you hope that the domestic investment provides enough growth to offset the "cost" of that investment.

China is growing dramatically, and they are catching up. Personaly, I'm less worried about their relative growth, than our relative decline. Our educational system is a joke, especially in the sciences and math. The combination of huge labor influxes (immigration) and outsourcing, is also endangering our middle and lower classes.

Dumping lower skilled jobs like building cars is all fine and good, assuming that you are training your people to find more advanced careers. That is not happening. Our students are top of their class in the first few years of school, and they fall behind just about every other western nation by the time they get to middle school. The costs of college are increasing, student aid is decreasing. The math on that does not look good.

[Pajman]

Yes, China is becoming more powerful. However, you can't expect an economy to keep growing at such a robust rate; it must go through cycles.
Japan became an economic superpower during the bubble years with the Tokyo Stock Exchange surpassing the New York Stock Exchange in terms of market caps of listed shares. It was by far the largest stock exchange in the world. However, this is no longer true.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange hasn't even reached the $1 trillion mark yet. It has over $22 trillion to go and on the way up, I predict that a major correction will occur.
Of course, the stock market itself doesn't tell much about an economy, but it's one of the factors to consider.

[Motion City]

you really think those squinty eyed fuckers can beat america? Even if they can start growing as a nation we can slay them with our huge dicks. you know their puny meat noodles can't fuck with our USA sausage. We are going to take over the world soon and it's for the best. Once we control everything we can finally commit a mass genocide on all yellow skinned smart ass bitches. America! FUCK YEAH!

you sir, are my friend

We will not take shit from those bitches, the only thing they are good for is working at chinese buffets and mcdonalds

[Boomer]

We have the top brains of the country here in this thread, characterized by their "lawl we gonna pwn the chink sons of bitches with our mighty conjones" attitude. I'm sure with such intelligence US of A is heading right towards prosperity.

While the average Chinese income cannot compare to those of ours, keep in mind many goods there are way cheaper when you take their dollar value into account. In fact, 12% of their population (UN estimate) live in relative poverty compared to 14% in U.S. according to the Census Bureau. The predicted slow down of Chinese economy has yet to happen, but is expected due to the public's pressure on rising inflation and wealth gap. If I have to guess, I'd say their growth will drop down to around 6% in the next 10 years. Of course, I'm no expert in this subject.

Militarily, they are not much of a concern at this point. Most of their equipments are still copies of Soviet 60's technology despite the modernization effort. While they have a decent land force, their navy and airforce is by and large obsolete even by our standard 10 years back. Beijing cannot effectively project power beyond her border at this point.

They are plagued by so many problems at this point in time that declaring them as the "future superpower" is unfitting. Depending on how their government steers the country, we will see in the next two decades if they can truly challenge the American dominance or simply another South America in the making.

[Cee]

We have the top brains of the country here in this thread, characterized by their "lawl we gonna pwn the chink sons of bitches with our mighty conjones" attitude. I'm sure with such intelligence US of A is heading right towards prosperity.

While the average Chinese income cannot compare to those of ours, keep in mind many goods there are way cheaper when you take their dollar value into account. In fact, 12% of their population (UN estimate) live in relative poverty compared to 14% in U.S. according to the Census Bureau. The predicted slow down of Chinese economy has yet to happen, but is expected due to the public's pressure on rising inflation and wealth gap. If I have to guess, I'd say their growth will drop down to around 6% in the next 10 years. Of course, I'm no expert in this subject.

Militarily, they are not much of a concern at this point. Most of their equipments are still copies of Soviet 60's technology despite the modernization effort. While they have a decent land force, their navy and airforce is by and large obsolete even by our standard 10 years back. Beijing cannot effectively project power beyond her border at this point.

They are plagued by so many problems at this point in time that declaring them as the "future superpower" is unfitting. Depending on how their government steers the country, we will see in the next two decades if they can truly challenge the American dominance or simply another South America in the making.

This thread has potential.

Wow you nailed it on the head. And lets keep stupid comments on a minimum.

[The Machine]

you really think those squinty eyed fuckers can beat america? Even if they can start growing as a nation we can slay them with our huge dicks. you know their puny meat noodles can't fuck with our USA sausage. We are going to take over the world soon and it's for the best. Once we control everything we can finally commit a mass genocide on all yellow skinned smart ass bitches. America! FUCK YEAH!

If that were the case, I think blacks would rule the world.

[Master. kirby]

If that were the case, I think blacks would rule the world.

blacks are to lazy, don't you know anything?

[hambone]

China is on the rise and year after year are growing in population, increasing in education, producing most of the world's goods, and rising in political power. I have many friends who have traveled on business trips to China and say that soon America will have to realize Chinese development surpassing their own. Who knows, will Mandarin being taught as a second language in high schools?



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3763370.stm

also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_as_an_emerging_superpower

This isn't anything particularly new, but it is a topic that is rarely seen on CE.



Understand this....."super powers" as we know, are a thing of the past. There is enough "ammunition" out there that "manpower" has lost it's importance.

It's kinda like two dudes that are both putting a "glock" to each others head......SURE you can pull the trigger, but what are the chances that even through death, that he won't also pull the trigger???

Guys like myself, and all the other warriors of the world have lost their value.......we always have, and always will be obsolete when we fight for "values" as compared to morals




Can you dig it?

[The Machine]

Can you dig it?

I was referring more to economically/politically, but they also have a large army, and even in today's world, that is a factor (like Iraq).

[hambone]

I was referring more to economically/politically, but they also have a large army, and even in today's world, that is a factor (like Iraq).

Well if you wanna talk economics, and politics than you've already proved my point.

The 3rd largest army in the world was decimated within a week because of politics and economics.

Can you dig it, or do I need to explain more?

[The Machine]

Well if you wanna talk economics, and politics than you've already proved my point.

The 3rd largest army in the world was decimated within a week because of politics and economics.

Can you dig it, or do I need to explain more?

Explain more, but don't say "can you dig it" or I will eat your first born child.

[bobtheflob]

Yes we do owe China a shit-ton of money. The thing is is that they don't put their currency on the open-market, so it doesn't fluctuate like everyone else's does, so that keeps the costs down there. On the flip side, it also causes their citizens to make jack-shit money in comparison to the rest of the world, thus keeping them more isolated in a way.

You did a good job of summarizing it right there. I wrote a paper on this a few years back in an international econ class. Basically, they tie the yuan (their currency) to the dollar. I don't remember what the exact ratio is, but say it's 2.5 yuan per dollar. The it will stay that way no matter how much the dollar fluctuates against euros or yen. They basically do this by having tight controls on banking and finances, and by buying a lot of American dollars.

Lots of countries that don't have a strong enough financial base to have a free floating currency do this. The problem is that China is intentionally keeping the rate such that the yuan is worth less than it should. This keeps their exports to the U.S. really cheap because selling something for a dollar will get them 2.5 yuan when it should get them more like 1.5.

In order to keep this up as I said before, China has to buy a lot of American dollars. So they're as dependent on financing America's debt as we are on running up deficits. China can't let their currency float free because they'd have way to unstable of an economy to pull it off (Think the US in 1928 but worse).

[Hermit]

I think our eventual inevitable dispute with China will be over oil.


China's crude oil imports up 14.5 pct in 2006
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2007-01-12 20:19

BEIJING -- China imported 145.18 million tons of crude oil in 2006, up 14.5 percent from a year ago, said the General Administration of Customs on Friday.

According to newly released customs statistics, China imported 36.38 million tons of refined oil in 2006, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7 percent.

China saw a sharp decline in crude oil exports in 2006, down 21.4 percent from 2005 to 6.34 million tons.

The exports of refined oil declined by 11.9 percent to 12.35 million tons last year.

China's net imports of crude oil in 2006 totaled 138.84 million tons, up 17 percent on the previous year and net imports of refined oil were up 38 percent to 24.03 million tons.

According to the data, China spent an additional 23.8 billion U.S. dollars on importing crude oil and oil products in 2006, up 41 percent from 2005.

The rise of China's oil imports in 2006 did not affect the falling trend of the international oil price which has been occurring for several months.

According to New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) prices, the price of crude oil stood at 51.88 U.S. dollars per barrel on Thursday, the lowest price since May 2005.

According to the customs statistics, the December imports of crude oil were 11.56 million tons, down 15 percent from the previous month.

China saw its imports of crude oil hit a record high of 13.54 million tons last November.

"The rise in oil imports and decline in exports reflect the surge in China's oil consumption in 2006, driven by the booming economy," said Dong Xiucheng, Professor of the China University of Petroleum.

China's GDP continued to grow at around 10 percent last year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China produced 168.4 million tons of crude oil in the first 11 months, up 1.6 percent from the same period of last year.source (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-01/12/content_782592.htm)

The U.S. leads the world in oil consumption at 20,030,000 barrels / day, but China is second place at 6,391,000 barrels / day, and gaining fast. Our political enemies such as Iran and Venezuala would much rather deal with the Chinese.

[Boomer]

You did a good job of summarizing it right there. I wrote a paper on this a few years back in an international econ class. Basically, they tie the yuan (their currency) to the dollar. I don't remember what the exact ratio is, but say it's 2.5 yuan per dollar. The it will stay that way no matter how much the dollar fluctuates against euros or yen. They basically do this by having tight controls on banking and finances, and by buying a lot of American dollars.

Lots of countries that don't have a strong enough financial base to have a free floating currency do this. The problem is that China is intentionally keeping the rate such that the yuan is worth less than it should. This keeps their exports to the U.S. really cheap because selling something for a dollar will get them 2.5 yuan when it should get them more like 1.5.

In order to keep this up as I said before, China has to buy a lot of American dollars. So they're as dependent on financing America's debt as we are on running up deficits. China can't let their currency float free because they'd have way to unstable of an economy to pull it off (Think the US in 1928 but worse).

The current exchange ratio is 7.8 Chinese dollar to 1 American or something like that right now. During the height of the dispute, the rate was 8.2 to 1 I believe.

While everyone has focused on China, I'm sensing a hidden challenger in the form of European Union. They have highly developed economy compared to China, modern militaries, and stable democratic government to seriously challenge the interest of the U.S.

[Snowden]

The current exchange ratio is 7.8 Chinese dollar to 1 American or something like that right now. During the height of the dispute, the rate was 8.2 to 1 I believe.

While everyone has focused on China, I'm sensing a hidden challenger in the form of European Union. They have highly developed economy compared to China, modern militaries, and stable democratic government to seriously challenge the interest of the U.S.



the EU doesnt have very much political, economic, or military sway in my opinion. for one thing, it is held together very loosely. european nationalism will prevent the EU from being a force to reckon with. look at the example of the UK with the euro. i dont doubt that alot of europeans are interested in consolidating their powers through the EU, but nationalism takes priority, and national interests in the major european players will outweigh regional interests. thats the way it has been for 200 years, and there are no implications that this trend is going to change any time soon.

[Buddha Bukakke!]

Yes, I do believe China will surpass us...when they change their government. Their idea of hard work has progressed so much farther than our lazy asses. I believe if they were in a similar government to us they could easily be the superpower of the world.