• Dumb-dumb plan #398: Steel and Aluminum tariffs

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If it doesn't fit in another forum, chances are it belongs here.
 #120950  by JohnnyP
 Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:03 pm
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:55 pm
JohnnyP wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:37 pm


The stock market is overinflated and overpriced. The whole marked is running on fumes, with the whole thing just going with the momentum of the bull run that started since 2009, and went crazy in January 2016. Traders are just all on a bull high from making so much money in the past 9 years, not realizing they're overestimate the market and the worth of all these company. Crash incoming in 6, 5, 4 month...
Youve already seen a correction taking place with the fed increasing interest rates and investors finding the bond market an attractive alternate to stocks. It will likely continue as interest rates go up. That also minimizes the chances of large corrections.
People have been overpaying for blue chip stocks for a while now, and have become way too optimistic. This market is just too damn expensive.

Small corrections may just delay the inevitable. But the inevitable is already overdue. There's gonna be a crash. In fact, we may already be in the early phase of a crash. The Dow has been dipping wildly, just like at the beginning of previous crashes.

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Anything is possible. People have had no other place to invest since the fed kept rates so low. Those who value investment security should be moving over to the bond market now. That will leave people who wont shit the bed and bail over market volatility.

Btw, did you know I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night?
 #120963  by Kumacho
 Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:55 pm
JohnnyP wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:37 pm


The stock market is overinflated and overpriced. The whole marked is running on fumes, with the whole thing just going with the momentum of the bull run that started since 2009, and went crazy in January 2016. Traders are just all on a bull high from making so much money in the past 9 years, not realizing they're overestimate the market and the worth of all these company. Crash incoming in 6, 5, 4 month...
Youve already seen a correction taking place with the fed increasing interest rates and investors finding the bond market an attractive alternate to stocks. It will likely continue as interest rates go up. That also minimizes the chances of large corrections.
People have been overpaying for blue chip stocks for a while now, and have become way too optimistic. This market is just too damn expensive.

Small corrections may just delay the inevitable. But the inevitable is already overdue. There's gonna be a crash. In fact, we may already be in the early phase of a crash. The Dow has been dipping wildly, just like at the beginning of previous crashes.

Image
Most analysts are thinking the next crash is going to be another tech driven crash.

But Warren Buffett isn't "most analysts". Last month he bought 75 million shares of Apple, doubling his current exposure. He's pretty convinced the crash is a ways off and that tech will not be the cause.

While I agree we are again riding an artificial bubble, I don't think the crash is as close as I first envisioned it.

Some of the best analysts (including Paul Tudor) are predicting a huge and nearly unprecedented parallel rise in stocks and bonds after the midterm election.

Personally, I would think that they are correct and any anticipated crash will be after the rise of both.
 #121001  by Hakik
 Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:33 pm
Kumacho wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:06 pm


But Warren Buffett isn't "most analysts". Last month he bought 75 million shares of Apple, doubling his current exposure. He's pretty convinced the crash is a ways off and that tech will not be the cause.

Warrent Buffett doesn't try to time the market, that's not his strategy. So for people like him, it doesn't matter if there's a crash coming next week or next year. He's gonna buy the kind of stock that will bounce back even if there's a crash or recession. Him buying stock is not a sign that the market is not gonna crash. But don't take my word for it. Just watch and learn.
doonrothmani liked this
 #121060  by Kumacho
 Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:10 am
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:33 pm
Kumacho wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:06 pm


But Warren Buffett isn't "most analysts". Last month he bought 75 million shares of Apple, doubling his current exposure. He's pretty convinced the crash is a ways off and that tech will not be the cause.

Warrent Buffett doesn't try to time the market, that's not his strategy. So for people like him, it doesn't matter if there's a crash coming next week or next year. He's gonna buy the kind of stock that will bounce back even if there's a crash or recession. Him buying stock is not a sign that the market is not gonna crash. But don't take my word for it. Just watch and learn.
Not entirely true. He has historically avoided technical stocks saying that if he doesn't understand it he won't invest in it.

There has to be some strength there for him to abandon that policy at this particular time.

And you are also ignoring Paul Tudor's take on when the bubble will collapse. I have been beginning to think that after midterms might be right. Especially since it looks like the GOP is going to remain in control. That will create an even larger and less sustainable bubble since he predicts that bonds will increase at nearly the same rate. That doesn't sound promising to me.

I'm going to predict a first quarter meltdown in 2019.
 #121071  by Hakik
 Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:56 pm
Kumacho wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:10 am
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:33 pm
Kumacho wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:06 pm


But Warren Buffett isn't "most analysts". Last month he bought 75 million shares of Apple, doubling his current exposure. He's pretty convinced the crash is a ways off and that tech will not be the cause.

Warrent Buffett doesn't try to time the market, that's not his strategy. So for people like him, it doesn't matter if there's a crash coming next week or next year. He's gonna buy the kind of stock that will bounce back even if there's a crash or recession. Him buying stock is not a sign that the market is not gonna crash. But don't take my word for it. Just watch and learn.
Not entirely true. He has historically avoided technical stocks saying that if he doesn't understand it he won't invest in it.

There has to be some strength there for him to abandon that policy at this particular time.

And you are also ignoring Paul Tudor's take on when the bubble will collapse. I have been beginning to think that after midterms might be right. Especially since it looks like the GOP is going to remain in control. That will create an even larger and less sustainable bubble since he predicts that bonds will increase at nearly the same rate. That doesn't sound promising to me.

I'm going to predict a first quarter meltdown in 2019.
That's just two experts. There's many more experts who have predicted an imminent crash. And when it comes to tech stuff, Buffet is not your guy. Honestly, this is not the time to buy Apple. If you own Apple, you don't necessarily need to sell either, I would still hold. But if you had plans on selling Apple, now is a great time. It's probably close to a peak now. I don't even think sales of the next line of iPhones is gonna go as predicted.
 #121073  by Kumacho
 Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:58 pm
Hakik wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:56 pm
Kumacho wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:10 am
Hakik wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:33 pm


Warrent Buffett doesn't try to time the market, that's not his strategy. So for people like him, it doesn't matter if there's a crash coming next week or next year. He's gonna buy the kind of stock that will bounce back even if there's a crash or recession. Him buying stock is not a sign that the market is not gonna crash. But don't take my word for it. Just watch and learn.
Not entirely true. He has historically avoided technical stocks saying that if he doesn't understand it he won't invest in it.

There has to be some strength there for him to abandon that policy at this particular time.

And you are also ignoring Paul Tudor's take on when the bubble will collapse. I have been beginning to think that after midterms might be right. Especially since it looks like the GOP is going to remain in control. That will create an even larger and less sustainable bubble since he predicts that bonds will increase at nearly the same rate. That doesn't sound promising to me.

I'm going to predict a first quarter meltdown in 2019.
That's just two experts. There's many more experts who have predicted an imminent crash. And when it comes to tech stuff, Buffet is not your guy. Honestly, this is not the time to buy Apple. If you own Apple, you don't necessarily need to sell either, I would still hold. But if you had plans on selling Apple, now is a great time. It's probably close to a peak now. I don't even think sales of the next line of iPhones is gonna go as predicted.
I agree, doubling down on Apple is a strange call for him. But I do see the logic in Tudor's explanation.
 #121240  by Hakik
 Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:40 am
lemmiwinx wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:46 pm
My brother works for Phoenix Metals. He says they're handing out mega $$$ bonuses every quarter. A president like Trump we haven't seen since Reagan.
Yea, they were probably doing alright before this whole tariff fiasco. No points for guessing how well they're gonna do in the next quarters with aluminum up 20% in price since the announcement, and steel up a whopping 40% this year. It's not an industry that can handle massive losses like that.